While headline and core WPI are stuck in a disinflationary phase, the retail measure is inching north.
India's services sector activity continued to expand in September, supported by favourable underlying demand amid the easing of COVID-19 restrictions, but lost some momentum from August's 18-month high level, a monthly survey said on Tuesday. The seasonally adjusted India Services Business Activity Index fell from 56.7 in August to 55.2 in September, but remained well above its long-run average. "Despite easing from August, the rate of expansion was marked and the second-fastest since February 2020," the survey said.
'Consider 40% to 50% in equities, 10% in gold as a hedge, and the remaining 30% to 40% split between multi-asset funds and hybrid funds.'
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As on Monday, the prices of many vegetables had fallen as much as 50% compared with those a month before, due to increased supply, following the arrival of winter crops in the markets.
When investing in fixed-income products, balancing considerations like safety, liquidity, and income is essential.
The Reserve Bank of India on Thursday opted for a pause second time in a row, maintaining key benchmark policy rate at 6.5 per cent as inflation moderates. The rate increase cycle was paused in April after six consecutive rate hikes aggregating to 250 basis points since May 2022. Announcing the bi-monthly monetary policy, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) unanimously decided to keep the rate unchanged at 6.5 per cent.
'The real repo rate is very high in terms of core inflation.'
Stock market investors became richer by a whopping Rs 77.66 lakh crore in 2024, helped by an overall optimistic trend in equities, where the BSE Sensex surged over 8 per cent. Analysts said the year witnessed a tug of war between the bulls and bears marked by volatility but, despite the uncertainties around the world, the Indian markets sustained the pressure and delivered impressive returns.
Retail sales of passenger vehicles grew last month but the sales of two-wheeler and commercial vehicles remained low compared to the pre-COVID month of May 2019, according to automobile dealers' body FADA. On Monday, FADA said that overall auto retails stood at 16,46,773 units in May, down from 18,22,900 units in May 2019. "May 2022 retails when compared to May 2019 reveal that sales are still not on a growth trajectory as overall retails were down by 10 per cent.
The ever-astute Ravi Matthai, Director of Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad in 1971, offered me a basic salary of Rs 1,000 per month on my return from the United States. I doubt if IIMA could hire a faculty member at Rs 55,000 per month today! points out Dr Shreekant Sambrani.
Automotive retail sales saw a 14 per cent rise in March on a year-on-year (YoY) basis, according to data released by the Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations (FADA). For the whole of financial year 2022-23 (FY23), sales grew 21 per cent YoY. For both March and the financial year, all categories, except for tractors, and including two-wheelers, three-wheelers, passenger vehicles (PVs), and commercial vehicles (CVs), posted double-digit growth. However, the total retail sales of 22.1 million for the financial year were still 12 per cent lower than the pre-Covid (FY20) level of 25 million, owing to an 18 per cent dip in the two-wheeler segment.
The highlights of the RBI's fourth monetary policy review of fiscal year 2022-23 announced by Governor Shaktikanta Das.
Food articles inflation at 8.43% compared to 8.14% m-o-m.
India is expected to contribute 15 per cent to the global growth in 2023, an International Monetary Fund (IMF) official said on Tuesday. "Both India and China are expected to contribute 50 per cent of the global growth in the upcoming year (2023). "However, the share of India's contribution to global growth is expected to be around 15 per cent," Krishna Srinivasan, director, Asia and Pacific Department (APD) at IMF said at a roundtable with reporters from south Asian countries.
The new government will face four big challenges -- subdued growth, the fiscal and current account deficits and sticky inflation, RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan said.
DBS called Rajan's decision not to seek an extension as a 'negative surprise'.
Stock Market News today, PSU banks: The year 2024 was a roller-coaster ride for Indian stock markets, marked by volatility driven by the Lok Sabha elections, Union Budget 2024, a slowdown in corporate earnings, and sticky inflation. Geopolitical tensions - particularly between Israel and Iran in West Asia - along with various stimulus announcements by China and yen carry trade rocked the equity markets throughout the year.
'Whether I am optimistic or pessimistic is not the issue; I am just going by the evidence available.' 'The Indian economy and financial sector are now well-placed and very resilient in dealing with any kind of spillover coming from the external world.'
Activist short-seller Nathan Anderson, known for his high-profile campaigns against the likes of Adani Group, said he is closing his firm, Hindenburg Research, not because of any threat -- legal or otherwise -- and that he stands by all its reports.
Last week, the Consumer Price Index-based inflation for the month had contracted to 4.4 per cent.
'It is difficult to write business internationally, without an 'A-' rating. It becomes more expensive.'
Domestic stock markets would be driven by inflation numbers, global trends, and the last batch of Q4 earnings this week, analysts said. Markets will also react to industrial production data and consumer inflation numbers that were released after market hours on Friday. "Participants will react to macroeconomic data viz. IIP and CPI first, which were released post-market hours on Friday.
Global brokerage firm CLSA has reversed its early tactical shift from Indian equities to Chinese stocks, and has decided to raise India allocation while cutting exposure to China. In its report titled 'Pouncing Tiger, Prevaricating Dragon', CLSA cited challenges facing Chinese markets in the aftermath of Donald Trump's victory in the US elections as the reason for the move. "Misfortune can happen in threes. So it has played out for Chinese equities over the past week.
In August, wholesale prices rose 3.74 per cent year-on-year.
Usually, turmeric is grown over 290,000-330,000 hectares of land. But in 2022-2023, according to official estimates, there has been a drop of about 10,000 hectares.
India is in a much better position to deal with the challenges related to growth and inflation, said Sanjiv Bajaj, president of industry body CII. According to official figures, India's retail inflation continues to remain above the Reserve Bank's tolerance level of 6 per cent since January, while the economic growth in the first quarter of the fiscal was 13.5 per cent, lower than the central bank's estimate of 16.2 per cent. "I don't want to say we don't have our own challenges with growth, with inflation but we are in a much better position and credit must go to everybody including the central and state governments.
Retail inflation crossed the RBI's comfort level and rose to 5.21 per cent in December on increase in prices of food items.
Disagreeing with Reserve Bank's projection on the price situation, former RBI Governor and PM's Economic Advisory Council chairman C Rangarajan said WPI and CPI may not be as high as being projected by the central bank.
'Just this year alone, close to 40 major transactions involving Bollywood stars have been recorded.'
Focus on inflation, higher CPI projection dampen bond market mood.
In February last year, it was (-)2.17 per cent.
International oil prices continue to be extremely volatile, falling on one day and rising thereafter, a top oil ministry official said explaining the reason behind no reduction in petrol and diesel prices despite softening in input cost, but could not say if the rates will be cut before Maharashtra elections. Global oil benchmark Brent crude futures fell below $70 per barrel last week -- the first time since December 2021 -- but gained thereafter. Brent was trading at $74.58 per barrel on Thursday while West Texas Intermediate advanced to trade at $71.71.
It pointed out that farm loan waivers, combined with a potential stimulus which the government is mulling now, can result in a 1 percentage point slippage in fiscal deficit
He said the short term macroeconomic priorities of the RBI continue to focus on bringing down inflation towards the government-set target of 4 per cent
'A dynamic bond fund acts like a gilt fund in a rate cut scenario and like a conservative short-term bond fund when rates rise.'
Most Indian chief executives are optimistic about the economy and believe it would improve in the coming 12 months, said a survey by consulting and auditing firm PwC on Tuesday. The company's 27th annual global survey polled 4,702 chief executive officers (CEOs) in 105 countries and territories, including 79 in India, from October 2 to November 10, 2023. As many as 86 per cent of CEOs in India - 30 per cent higher than a year ago - are confident that the economy would improve.
'Future market gains will likely depend primarily on earnings growth.'
New investors should gradually build a 5 to 10 per cent allocation to gold.
The decline in inflation was broad-based across major commodity groups except housing and fuel and light.
The rise in food inflation was on account of increase in prices of onions, vegetables, cereals and protein-based items.
