'A dynamic bond fund acts like a gilt fund in a rate cut scenario and like a conservative short-term bond fund when rates rise.'
International oil prices continue to be extremely volatile, falling on one day and rising thereafter, a top oil ministry official said explaining the reason behind no reduction in petrol and diesel prices despite softening in input cost, but could not say if the rates will be cut before Maharashtra elections. Global oil benchmark Brent crude futures fell below $70 per barrel last week -- the first time since December 2021 -- but gained thereafter. Brent was trading at $74.58 per barrel on Thursday while West Texas Intermediate advanced to trade at $71.71.
Retail inflation inches up to 3.77%; IIP growth dips to 3-month low
The week's losses wiped out investor wealth worth Rs 18.43 trillion, with the total market capitalisation of BSE-listed firms now at Rs 441 trillion.
'Future market gains will likely depend primarily on earnings growth.'
The ever-astute Ravi Matthai, Director of Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad in 1971, offered me a basic salary of Rs 1,000 per month on my return from the United States. I doubt if IIMA could hire a faculty member at Rs 55,000 per month today! points out Dr Shreekant Sambrani.
Automotive retail sales saw a 14 per cent rise in March on a year-on-year (YoY) basis, according to data released by the Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations (FADA). For the whole of financial year 2022-23 (FY23), sales grew 21 per cent YoY. For both March and the financial year, all categories, except for tractors, and including two-wheelers, three-wheelers, passenger vehicles (PVs), and commercial vehicles (CVs), posted double-digit growth. However, the total retail sales of 22.1 million for the financial year were still 12 per cent lower than the pre-Covid (FY20) level of 25 million, owing to an 18 per cent dip in the two-wheeler segment.
While headline and core WPI are stuck in a disinflationary phase, the retail measure is inching north.
Retail sales of passenger vehicles grew last month but the sales of two-wheeler and commercial vehicles remained low compared to the pre-COVID month of May 2019, according to automobile dealers' body FADA. On Monday, FADA said that overall auto retails stood at 16,46,773 units in May, down from 18,22,900 units in May 2019. "May 2022 retails when compared to May 2019 reveal that sales are still not on a growth trajectory as overall retails were down by 10 per cent.
India is expected to contribute 15 per cent to the global growth in 2023, an International Monetary Fund (IMF) official said on Tuesday. "Both India and China are expected to contribute 50 per cent of the global growth in the upcoming year (2023). "However, the share of India's contribution to global growth is expected to be around 15 per cent," Krishna Srinivasan, director, Asia and Pacific Department (APD) at IMF said at a roundtable with reporters from south Asian countries.
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As on Monday, the prices of many vegetables had fallen as much as 50% compared with those a month before, due to increased supply, following the arrival of winter crops in the markets.
The highlights of the RBI's fourth monetary policy review of fiscal year 2022-23 announced by Governor Shaktikanta Das.
Usually, turmeric is grown over 290,000-330,000 hectares of land. But in 2022-2023, according to official estimates, there has been a drop of about 10,000 hectares.
Domestic stock markets would be driven by inflation numbers, global trends, and the last batch of Q4 earnings this week, analysts said. Markets will also react to industrial production data and consumer inflation numbers that were released after market hours on Friday. "Participants will react to macroeconomic data viz. IIP and CPI first, which were released post-market hours on Friday.
Most Indian chief executives are optimistic about the economy and believe it would improve in the coming 12 months, said a survey by consulting and auditing firm PwC on Tuesday. The company's 27th annual global survey polled 4,702 chief executive officers (CEOs) in 105 countries and territories, including 79 in India, from October 2 to November 10, 2023. As many as 86 per cent of CEOs in India - 30 per cent higher than a year ago - are confident that the economy would improve.
Food articles inflation at 8.43% compared to 8.14% m-o-m.
India is in a much better position to deal with the challenges related to growth and inflation, said Sanjiv Bajaj, president of industry body CII. According to official figures, India's retail inflation continues to remain above the Reserve Bank's tolerance level of 6 per cent since January, while the economic growth in the first quarter of the fiscal was 13.5 per cent, lower than the central bank's estimate of 16.2 per cent. "I don't want to say we don't have our own challenges with growth, with inflation but we are in a much better position and credit must go to everybody including the central and state governments.
The new government will face four big challenges -- subdued growth, the fiscal and current account deficits and sticky inflation, RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan said.
Equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty settled higher on Thursday, powered by a rally in banking and power stocks amid a largely firm trend in global markets. The stock markets mostly traded range-bound in the absence of any major trigger and persistent foreign capital outflows, traders said. The 30-share BSE Sensex rose 144.31 points, or 0.18 per cent, to settle at 81,611.41.
DBS called Rajan's decision not to seek an extension as a 'negative surprise'.
Last week, the Consumer Price Index-based inflation for the month had contracted to 4.4 per cent.
In August, wholesale prices rose 3.74 per cent year-on-year.
Retail inflation crossed the RBI's comfort level and rose to 5.21 per cent in December on increase in prices of food items.
Focus on inflation, higher CPI projection dampen bond market mood.
Disagreeing with Reserve Bank's projection on the price situation, former RBI Governor and PM's Economic Advisory Council chairman C Rangarajan said WPI and CPI may not be as high as being projected by the central bank.
In February last year, it was (-)2.17 per cent.
It pointed out that farm loan waivers, combined with a potential stimulus which the government is mulling now, can result in a 1 percentage point slippage in fiscal deficit
He said the short term macroeconomic priorities of the RBI continue to focus on bringing down inflation towards the government-set target of 4 per cent
The decline in inflation was broad-based across major commodity groups except housing and fuel and light.
India's manufacturing sector activities improved in September as companies benefited from strengthening demand conditions amid the easing of COVID-19 restrictions, a monthly survey said on Friday. The seasonally adjusted IHS Markit India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) improved from 52.3 in August to 53.7 in September, indicating a stronger expansion in overall business conditions across the sector. The September PMI data pointed to an improvement in overall operating conditions for the third straight month. In PMI parlance, a print above 50 means expansion while a score below 50 denotes contraction.
From Sensex firms, Tech Mahindra, Mahindra & Mahindra, Tata Motors, UltraTech Cement, Tata Consultancy Services, HCL Technologies, ICICI Bank and Tata Steel were the biggest gainers. Sun Pharma emerged as the only laggard.
After turning net buyers last month, foreign investors have become aggressive shoppers of Indian equities and have invested Rs 22,452 crore in the first two weeks of August amid softening inflation concerns. This was way higher than a net investment of nearly Rs 5,000 crore by Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) in the entire month of July, data with depositories showed. FPIs had turned net buyers for the first time in July, after nine straight months of massive net outflows, which started in October last year.
The rise in food inflation was on account of increase in prices of onions, vegetables, cereals and protein-based items.
Benchmark equity indices Sensex and Nifty closed higher by more than half a per cent on Wednesday following buying in IT, financial and oil stocks after the RBI slowed down the pace of interest rate hikes. Ending its two-day slide, the 30-share BSE Sensex rebounded by 377.75 points or 0.63 per cent to close at 60,663.79 with 24 of its constituents posting gains. The broader Nifty of the NSE spurted by 150.20 points or 0.85 per cent to settle at 17,871.70, riding on a rally in Adani Enterprises, Adani Ports and HDFC Life.
Equity markets will take cues from global trends and trading activity of foreign investors, while in the latter part of the week the first quarter earnings from IT majors TCS and HCL Technologies would guide investor sentiments, analysts said. Markets may consolidate after the record rally last week, experts added. "On the domestic front, the Q1 earnings season begins this week. Key companies such as TCS and HCL Technologies will release their earnings on July 11 and 12, 2024, respectively.
Inflation to peak in the current quarter within tolerance band, moderating in the second half of next fiscal, says central bank.
Short-term lending (Repo) rate is unchanged at 8 per cent.
October infrastructure output, which contributes nearly 38 per cent to the industrial output index, was up 3.2 per cent annually.
The Reserve Bank on Tuesday cautioned that continued uncertainty over monsoon could stoke food inflation, but expressed the hope that government policies will improve supplies in the coming months.
Indian factory growth likely slowed in Jan, inflation to stay muted.
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